中国规模生猪养殖效率测度及其补贴政策效益评价研究

利用曼奎斯特指数和倍差法分析中国2001—2016年生猪补贴政策实施前后的生猪养殖效率,旨在科学地对中国生猪补贴政策效益进行评价。结果表明,在该时间段,中国大规模和中规模生猪养殖的规模效率总体上略有增长,技术效率和纯技术效率下降明显;生猪养殖规模不同,其全要素生产效率变化也有所差异;大、中规模生猪养殖的技术效率变化指数波动幅度并不大,但是全要素生产率和技术进步变化指数波动幅度大,且两者都呈现出同步变化趋势;生猪补贴政策整体上降低了生猪养殖的规模化效率。进一步研究发现,饲料等要素投入的多少对不同规模生猪养殖的规模效率影响差异显著,表现为投入越多,生猪养殖规模效率越大。地域GDP越高,大规模和中规模生猪的养殖规模效率也会越大,而且生猪调出大县奖励和畜牧标准化养殖补贴政策降低了大规模和中规模生猪养殖的规模效率。由此可知,中国生猪养殖规模效率的提升并不能过多地依赖于生猪补贴政策,而应该更多地从根本上提高养殖技术。     

健康意识对规模养殖户亲环境行为的影响——基于生猪环保饲料支付意愿的视角

为探究健康意识对规模养殖户以使用环保饲料为代表的亲环境行为的作用,以湖北省402个生猪规模养殖户为研究对象,应用Heckman两阶段模型,探讨健康意识对不同群体规模养殖户的影响差异。研究结果表明,大多数规模养殖户(78.97%)愿意为环保饲料付费,且平均意愿支付水平为每头生猪饲料成本的6.69%(46.80元·头^-1)。健康意识中的健康关注程度对生猪规模养殖户环保饲料支付意愿具有正向促进作用,健康变化感知对其意愿支付水平的影响正向显著。通过主成分分析,健康意识整体上直接对规模养殖户环保饲料的支付意愿与意愿支付水平产生正向影响。而差异性分析也表明,在环保饲料支付意愿决策上,健康意识不同的规模养殖户群体间有明显差异。     

基于人粮关系的关中-天水区土地资源承载力时空差异研究

以人粮关系为基础,基于GIS空间分析功能,采用土地资源承载力和土地资源承载指数模型,定量分析了"十一五"和"十二五"规划期间,关中-天水区县域尺度土地资源承载力的时空差异性。结果表明,2006—2015年期间,关中-天水区土地资源承载指数的平均值为1.377,土地资源超载率为22%,总体上处于人口超载状态;对比分析2个5年时间段,土地资源承载力提高的区县有19个,占研究区县总数的29%,主要分布在区域的西北和东北部,包括天水市、咸阳市、铜川市和渭南市的部分区县;土地资源承载力降低的区县有46个,占研究区县总数的71%,主要分布在区域的中部和南部,包括宝鸡市、西安市、咸阳市和商洛市的部分区县等。研究为区域土地资源开发、人口布局、粮食安全保障以及可持续发展提供了科学依据,也为区域更好地落实"十三五"规划中的耕地保护、粮食安全等政策提供了参考建议。     

Early life history connectivity of Antarctic silverfish (Pleuragramma antarctica) in the Ross Sea

A recent population hypothesis for Antarctic silverfish (Pleuragramma antarctica), a critical forage species, argued that interactions between life history and circulation associated with glacial trough systems drive circumpolar distributions over the continental shelf. In the Ross Sea, aggregations of eggs and larvae occur under fast ice in Terra Nova Bay, and the hypothesis predicted that dispersing larvae encounter outflow along the western side of Drygalski Trough. The outflow advects larvae towards the shelf‐break, and mixing with trough inflow facilitates return toward the inner shelf. To examine the hypothesis, we compared samples of P. antarctica collected near Coulman Island in the outflow, along Crary Bank in the inflow, and a third set taken over the rest of the Ross Sea. We ruled out misidentification using an innovative genetic validation. Silverfish larvae comprised 99.5% of the catch, and the highest population densities were found in Drygalski Trough. The results provided no evidence to reject the population hypothesis. Abundance indices, back‐calculated hatching dates, length distributions and growth were congruent with a unified early life history in the western Ross Sea, constrained by cryopelagic early stages in Terra Nova Bay. By contrast, a sample in the Bay of Whales revealed much smaller larvae, suggesting either a geographically separate population in the eastern Ross Sea, or westward connectivity with larvae spawned nearby by fish sourced from troughs upstream in the Amundsen Sea. These results illustrate how hypotheses that integrate population structure with life history can provide precise spatial predictions for subsequent testing.     

Genetic structuring and diversity patterns along rivers – local invasion history of Ambrosia artemisiifolia (Asteraceae) along the Danube River in Vienna (Austria) shows non‐linear pattern

Ambrosia artemisiifolia is an annual weed from North America that nowadays is invasive in many countries worldwide. In Austria, numerous populations of A. artemisiifolia are located along the Danube River, especially along the ‘New Danube’ (Vienna). This area is characterised by ruderal and riparian sites, which are regularly flooded. To better understand the spread of A. artemisiifolia and its colonising behaviour along the Danube River, we analysed genetic structure and diversity based on 23 populations linearly arranged along the Viennese Danube riverbed and upstream, utilising the Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism (AFLP) fingerprint method. We generated 284 polymorphic AFLP markers across 446 A. artemisiifolia plants. The genetic diversity within populations was higher (HW = 0.091) than among populations (HB = 0.007). This result indicates A. artemisiifolia introductions from similar mixtures of sources or spread from a single already mixed introduction. Within our local setting, we were unable to identify neither source or sink populations nor an obvious linear genetic structuring. Genetic among‐population differentiation was low to moderate (amova ‐derived F_ST = 0.124). Lack of geographical structuring is indicative of highly dynamic gene flow, which is further supported by the absence of an isolation‐by‐distance pattern. Multiple introductions and non‐directional gene flow are most likely promoted by anthropogenic disturbance and human‐mediated dispersal. Our results demonstrate the ability and speed of A. artemisiifolia to settle in newly disturbed areas and the difficulties to predict invasion directions, as downstream river dispersal was negligible.     

Remote sensing and forest inventories in Nordic countries – roadmap for the future

The Nordic countries have long traditions in forest inventory and remote sensing (RS). In sample-based national forest inventories (NFIs), utilization of aerial photographs started during the 1960s, satellite images during the 1980s, laser scanning during the 2000s, and photogrammetric point clouds during the 2010s. In forest management inventories (FMI), utilization of aerial photos started during the 1940s and laser scanning during the 2000s. However, so far, RS has mostly been used for map production and research rather than for estimation of regional parameters or inference on their accuracy. In recent years, the RS technology has been developing very fast. At the same time, the needs for information are constantly increasing. New technologies have created possibilities for cost-efficient production of accurate, large area forest data sets, which also will change the way forest inventories are done in the future. In this study, we analyse the state-of-the-art both in the NFIs and FMIs in the Nordic countries. We identify the benefits and drawbacks of different RS materials and data acquisition approaches with different user perspectives. Based on the analysis, we identify the needs for further development and emerging research questions. We also discuss alternatives for ownership of the data and cost-sharing between different actors in the field.     

我国集体林区林业规模经营的现实分析与实现路径

林业规模经营是我国实现林业现代化发展的一个必要过程。新一轮集体林权制度改革既为发展林业规模经营带来了挑战,但同时也为其创造了必要的条件。文中通过对规模经营相关理论的分析,对我国集体林区发展林业规模经营的现实必要性以及阻碍其发展的制约因素进行探讨,并就其实现路径提出如下建议:创新林地流转机制、培育新型林业规模经营主体、逐步建立健全林业社会化服务体系、把握好林业规模经营的"度",以期为我国林业向规模化、集约化和现代化方向发展提供参考。     

耕地植被人为干扰格局动态变化特征及其尺度效应

为探究耕地植被人为干扰格局动态变化特征及其尺度效应,该研究以黑龙江省大庆市为研究区,通过遥感与地理信息系统相结合的方法计算和识别耕地植被人为干扰,分析5个时段(1990-1995年、1995-2000年、2000-2005年、2005-2010年和2010-2016年)耕地植被人为干扰格局动态变化特征;并采用滑动格窗法和ISODATA聚类算法,对耕地植被人为干扰格局的尺度效应进行了研究。结果表明:1)当耕地植被受到的人为干扰增多时,研究区耕地植被人为干扰的分布趋向于集中;反之则趋向于分散。2)研究期内占耕地植被人为干扰面积50%以上的地区的尺度效应并不明显,但仍有占面积11.81%～18.33%的地区人为干扰的尺度效应十分显著,这些地区是人为干扰分布最集中和最不均匀的地区。3)在耕地植被人为干扰尺度效应显著地区中,土地利用类型未发生变化的地区所占的面积比例呈上升趋势,说明耕地保护政策产生了较好的效果;但耕地植被人为干扰的主要来源是农业生产行为,应将未来政策关注的重点转为对耕地土壤理化性质稳定性的维护。4)从多尺度空间聚类类型可以看出,在大部分尺度效应显著地区,尺度越小耕地植被人为干扰越显著,说明发展适度规模农业是降低人为干扰、提高粮食产量的有效途径。研究对于实现耕地保护和粮食稳定生产具有重要意义。     

山地丘陵区村级尺度耕地质量评价及保护分区

科学开展耕地质量评价,合理划定耕地保护分区,是实现耕地差异化保护和管理的重要前提。研究采用空间自相关方法,以重庆市荣昌区为例,以国家等耕地质量指数为空间变量,从村级尺度探讨山地丘陵区耕地质量的空间关联性与集聚特征,并基于局部空间自相关分析结果提出了耕地保护分区方案。结果表明:(1)荣昌区耕地质量全局空间上呈现较弱正相关性,全局Moran′s I值表现为耕地等别指数>利用等指数>自然等指数;局部空间上呈现较强变异特征,70%以上空间类型表现为随机分布,正相关类型(HH型和LL型)多以"组团"形态存在,负相关类型(LH型)以"点状"形态存在;(2)基于局部空间自相关类型特征及顺序组合,将耕地保护划分为重点保护区、重点改良区、适度改良区和适度调整区4类,并针对性提出耕地保护措施及管控说明。因此,在自然地理条件欠佳的山地丘陵区,研究结果可为各级行政主体精准有效地实施耕地保护和质量建设提供参考。     

定量分解气候变化与人类活动对季节径流变异的贡献率

变化环境下径流序列可能发生变异。当前径流变异的贡献率分解研究多集中于年尺度,而对季节尺度的关注不足。以黄土高原典型流域——泾河流域为研究对象,应用小波分析方法揭示其季尺度径流序列的演变规律,采用有序聚类法和累积距平法对其径流序列进行变异诊断,最后采用累计斜率变化率比较法定量分解气候变化和人类活动对其四季径流变异的贡献率。结果表明:(1)泾河流域夏季和冬季径流的周期变化均在20世纪90年代左右有发生转变,均由小尺度周期变化转变为较大尺度周期变化;(2)春、夏、秋和冬季径流分别在1969年、1996年、1985年和1990年发生变异;(3)人类活动对春、夏、秋和冬季径流变异的贡献率分别为50.40%,89.69%,39.14%和84.59%,在夏季和冬季人类活动(主要是水土保持措施的不断深入)对泾河径流变异的贡献占主导地位,且干扰影响了径流的周期变化。